New South Wales
The outlook for depicts above normal fire potential for grassland areas in central and northern NSW. This is based on reports of high grass and crop fuel loads particularly in the New England, Northern Tablelands and Liverpool Ranges.
Higher grass fuel loads can result in higher intensity fires and fire danger. Continuity of grass fuels is also important with more continuous fuels meaning that grass fires can spread more easily. Although odds suggest slightly higher chances
of above median rainfall for some of these areas depicted as having above normal potential, these odds are less favourable than areas further to the south. Curing or how readily grass will burn is also higher through these areas and includes parts of the Hunter.
Traditionally, the northern areas of the state are the first to start their Bush Fire Danger Periods, this pattern is likely to occur during this quarter with average to slightly drier than average conditions being experienced on the north coast.
For areas east of the divide not affected by the 2019-20 fires, this outlook period could see the normal risk. In any season we could see periods of escalated fire danger and fires that require assistance from beyond the area from which they
originate. The blue areas considered to have below normal potential are those recovering from the 2019-20 fire season. Although it may appear to be a significant jump between some of the blue areas and the above normal, this has arisen
as the grassland areas are more dynamic in their response to fire than the forested areas. Forest fuels take longer to reaccumulate than grass land areas. With the strongly favourable signal for above median rainfall in grassland areas west of the ranges and south of Sydney, these areas may see a delayed start to the fire season. However, this rainfall and warmer spring growth may see grass and crop fuel loads build during this period.
New South Wales